Wednesday, January 04, 2006

Scott Ritter on Iraq's future

I am not as pessimistic as Scott Ritter. He thinks Iraq is headed for civil war. the surprising thing is that the country has resisted that inspite of massive provocation.

I do not think history can repeat itself now either, with the Anglos regretting their backing for the Shia and reverting to the Sunni arabs, as happened in 1920.

What the Americans now face is a very weak Iraq next to an ever stronger Iran.
It is no longer possible to think of Iraq as a bolster against the Iranians.

If Ritter is right then a military strike against Iran is inevitable.

I think we will just see a Likkud backed Isreaeli air strike against the Iranian weapons facility.

Democracy sweeping the middle east.
Do not make me laugh.

America has invaded many countries since the second world war it has not established a stable democracy in any of them.

AlterNet: Blogs: The Mix: Elections in 2005, Civil War in 2006?: "And while the failings of interim governance can be blamed on secular Shi'a like Iyad Allawi, or non-SCIRI Shi'a like Ibrahim Jafari, SCIRI operated behind the scenes to take control of the formulation of Iraq's new constitution (through the October 2005 referendum vote) and the new Iraqi government based upon that constitution (through the December 2005 election). Most Iraqis, when casting their votes in December, were ill informed about the reality of the internal political dynamic that they were participating in, and in effect certifying through their participation. America's rush to create a free and democratic Iraq has, in the end, created the exact opposite. We simply replaced one form of tyranny (the secular dictatorship of Saddam Hussein) with another (the theocratic dictatorship of SCIRI)."

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